October 1, 2015
The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC) estimates that the financial health of its guarantee program for single-employer plans is likely to continue to improve over the next 10 years. In 2013, the PBGC projected that the deficit in 2023 would be $7.6 billion (in 2013 dollars). The 2014 Projection Report projects that there is a 50 percent likelihood that the deficit in 2024 will be $4.9 billion (in 2014 dollars). The PBGC’s estimate represents a projected decrease of $14.4 billion (in 2014 dollars) by 2024 (from 2014’s actual deficit of $19.3 to the projected 2024 deficit of $4.9 billion).
The PBGC attributes the estimated improvement in its single-employer program to improved funding of on-going plans and projected premium revenues exceeding projected benefit payments.
The PBGC’s projections — which are estimates, not predictions — are highly dependent on many highly, variable factors. Consequently, the PBGC warns “the actual results that ultimately occur in future years can, and likely will, vary materially from the projections.”
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